Since the FELDA deal involves the government it is natural for people to have some suspicions. Moreover when the deal is multi-BILLIONS in value and spear-headed by someone considered to be a political reject. Nevertheless it is too obvious that some people in the know for certain will be laughing all the way to the bank.
Well, thank God for smart friends. One actually spent some of his time to digest, analyse and simplify the whole thing for not-so-smart people like yours truly. I feel that his simplified analysis deserves to be shared with the rest of the not-so-smart people in the world for enlightenment, so we can make informed judgement on the issue no matter which side of the fence we are sitting on. It is also thankfully in Malay so I hope more non-English-speaking Malaysians can benefit from his work.
For credits, this guy wishes to be publicly known as Feizrul Nor. A few months back he wrote a series of opinion pieces on PPSMI which was published at the Malaysian Insider. His 'work' below is basically a summary of another, more detailed analysis posted here (follow the link if you are interested in the fancy charts and stuff) + his analysis based on the publicly published prospectus, various sources and discussions. Pretty heavy stuff to digest on my own.
So here goes.
FGVH Background:
1) FGVH ditubuhkan sebagai 'special purpose vehicle' untuk pegang 49% saham FELDA bagi pihak Gomen
2) FGVH is 100% Gomen owned
3) FGVH nih ada gak business lain, kalo refer kat the 1st diagram, FGVH owns shares in FELDA, MSM (gula biz), Tradewinds
4) also a few JV biz in North America and JV with Saudi company, both JV rugi teruk.
The Scheme:
1) to 'monetize' FGVH's assets via IPO - meaning FGVH yg 100% Gomen punya akan dpt billion2 ringgit from the IPO. Duit guna utk apa? Wallahu'alam, your guess as good as mine.
2) harga saham FGVH depends on asset apa yg dia ada.
3) since biz track record pon teruk and asset pon tak banyak, so harga IPO pon tak boleh tinggi2
4) the higher the IPO price, the more money Gomen makes
5) to get higher price, FGVH needs more assets
6) mana nak dapat asset? ka-chingg! tanah FELDA yang 350,000 hektar tuh
7) so Najib tells FELDA to sewakan tanah2 tuh pada FGVH at the rate of RM700 (yes tujuh ratus ringgit sahaja) per hektar per year, for 99 years.
8) so, sekarang FGVH dah ada asset yg osem sket, walaupun cuma tanah2 sewa. dgn adanya pertambahan asset nih, the rumored IPO price is set at RM4.65
8) so, sekarang FGVH dah ada asset yg osem sket, walaupun cuma tanah2 sewa. dgn adanya pertambahan asset nih, the rumored IPO price is set at RM4.65
9) tapi RM4.65 mana cukup beb. nak la harga tinggi lagi.
10) to get much more awesome price, tanah2 sewa tak cukup, kena jadikan tanah2 tuh milik mutlak. macam mana nak buat nih?
KPF Gets in the Picture:
1) Koperasi Peneroka Felda owns 51% of FELDA
2) Another 49% is owned by FGVH
3) to get the 350k hectares of FELDA land, FGVH need to get total ownership of FELDA
4) so, to do that, FGVH needs the 51% KPF shares in FELDA
5) so Isa Samad pon masuk jadi chairman FELDA, then somehow KPF dipaksa ambik dia jadi chairman KPF gaks
6) Isa Samad moved a motion for KPF to agree a share swap with FGVH
7) KPF's 51% in FELDA, for 30% of FGVH shares from the IPO. konon tukar suka sama suka.
8) seems like a 'durian runtuh' for the koperasi, dapat saham free 30% dalam FGVH the Public Listed Company (PLC)
9) tapi FGVH sudah ketawa evil, with the 51% KPF shares they will now own 100% of FELDA and all its assets, termasuk tanah 350k hektar tuh.
10) with this much2 more osemm asset, harga saham IPO sure akan lebih tinggi dari RM4.65. maka Gomen pon senang hati.
Tapi!!!
1) NGO ANAK pimpinan Mazlan Aliman sudah bikin kacau
2) dia kata Isa Samad jadi chairman KPF tak sah, pasal ahli KPF aja boleh jadi chairman kalo ikut perlembagaan KPF
3) Ahli KPF hanyalah peneroka dan staff2 FELDA.
4) so ANAK sudah dpt court order untuk block the whole share swap thingie.
6) without the share swap, FGVH takleh dpt full control of the 350k hectares of land.
5) dari evil laugh, skarang gomen sudah stuck. harga saham IPO pon sudah stuck dekat RM4.65
So, Why Go Through With It?
1) masa makin suntuk, seems like they are rushing for the IPO to be done before GE13
2) so gomen say - lantaklah! RM 4.65 per share pon okay whatt. Money is still money kan, watper nak tamak sgt :P
3) they are proceeding with the IPO without full control of the 350k hectares FELDA land. skarang cuma ada tanah2 sewa aja
But!!
1) ada isu jugak dgn tanah2 yg diorg sewa dari FELDA tuh
2) pokok kelapa sawit atas tanah2 tuh byk yg dah tua2. over 50% dah lebih 20 years old.
3) so hasil makin kurang, pokok tua means pokok tinggi, lagi susah nak harvest so cost makin tinggi. then pokok tua mmg makin kurang berbuah pon
4) also, pasal pokok2 dah tua, so in the near future FGVH kena kluar duit untuk tebang dan tanam pokok baru. this is extra cost
5) also, lepas tanam pokok baru bukan boleh terus berbuah. so akan ada period yg hasil FGVH akan merudum
6) also, eventhough FELDA has the biggest land tract for palm oil plantation in the world, tapi hasil produksi tanah2 nih per hektar in only ranked at 3rd. so productivity agak tidak memuaskan.
6) so, analyst bila tgk isu2 nih, diorg pon kata "Wait, RM4.65 is rather high. The share price should be lower!"
7) makin rendah harga share, makin kurang lah duit masuk poket Gomen.
Buy and Flip
1) tapi analyst nih pon tau, since gomen yg push for the IPO, kompem laa gomen nak tunjuk its a wise decision to go for the listing
2) so diorg expect, upon listing, saham FGVH akan naik mencanak-canak. at least temporarily
3) mcm mana nih leh jadi? nak manipulate KLCI bukan susah, saiz tak besar, with a few billion ringgit the gomen can already create a bull run on FGVH stock. bila tgk saham naik kompem investor lain pon nak join the party, so harga saham makin naik.
4) this euphoria will be temporary, coz in the long run the real issues will take over.
5) maka, kalao berjaya dpt saham FGVH nih time IPO, sgtlah menguntungkan :)
Jika salah harap tunjukkan :)
Moral for today, be friends with smart, critical-thinking people and you get to learn things. Be friends with sheep and you get seared for wool.
It's your choice.
